Page 4 - MEX Express - Vol 6 Issue 1

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Climate Smart Agriculture - Need or Compulsion!
Climate Change has emerged up a big
challenge to the global environment and the
economy. Nepal has also identified climate change
as a cross-cutting issue by virtue of its nature and
impacts. Despite nominal greenhouse gas emission
of about 0.025% (NAPA/MOE, 2010), Nepal is
listed as country at extreme risk to the impacts of
climate change (CCVI, 2014).The underlying fact
which makes Nepal fall in the vulnerable category
is its geographical position sharing several climatic
zones. The other factor attributing to Nepal’s
vulnerability is its socio-economic status. Lack of
livelihood diversification opportunities due to poor
resilience and low adaptive capacity exacerbates
Nepal’s vulnerability and puts majority of its
population under the risk of climate change
impacts.
Nepal is home to predominantly rural
population. Agriculture is the mainstay of Nepali
economy. Almost a large majority of 65 percent
of Nepali population depend on agriculture for
their livelihoods (GoN, 2012).25 years back, the
contribution of agriculture alone to the GDP of
Nepal was above 50 percent, but over the years the
agricultural share in the country’s GDP has declined
significantly but on the contrary, the percentage
population involved has have come down miserly.
However, agriculture still represents the dominant
sector employing two third of the country’s
labor force and contributing over one-third of
Nepal’s GDP. Although, agriculture contributes
around 32 percent of the GDP, the contribution
is much less than the participation. More than 70
percent of households in Nepal have less than 1
hectare of land and many depend on agricultural
lands that are too small to meet their subsistence
requirements (GoN, 2011). Despite engaging
heavy chunk of population, the agriculture sector
fails to yield as per the potential. The major reason
for this inefficiency is the heavy dependence on
El Niño- A Threat to Most Commodities!
El Niño is a band of extraordinarily warm ocean
water that periodically evolves off the Pacific coast
of South America and can cause climatic changes
over the Pacific Ocean. This warming of Pacific
Ocean surface temperatures which occurs every few
years is capable to trigger drought in some parts of
the world and cause floods in some other parts.
El Niño is part of a bigger picture namely ‘El
Niño-Southern Oscillation’ or in short known as
ENSO. Southern oscillation follows a vacillate
pattern of interchanging surface air pressure
between the eastern and western tropical Pacific,
which means when the surface pressure is high in
the eastern tropical Pacific it is low in the western rather than later.
tropical Pacific and the contrariwise. The warm
phase of ENSO is considered as El Niño and the
cold phase as La Nina. The simultaneous reversal of
the pressure and ocean warming is one reason why
scientist called this phenomenon El Niño/Southern
Oscillation. However, the causes which ignite
oscillation still remain under study.
Looking back in history, El Niño event which
happened during the year 1997-98 killed more than
20,000 people and caused around $97 billion of
damage. Climate researchers had warned in January
2014, that intense El Niño events are likely to occur
and become more common as earth warms. Many
scientists suggested that the impending El Niño
may possess many identical characters to the one
which happened in 1997, considering the similarity
in magnitude. It is said that, the more heat in the
Pacific, the bigger the El Niño will be.
A third time official warning, which came in
March 2014, regarding the possibility of El Niño
weather occurrence alerted farmers and commodity
investors as the weather could affect energy and
food markets which is already upset from extreme
Editorial Board: Chittaranjan Pandey / Liberty Shakya / Nijesh Ramraj / Shubhechchha Mulepati
Mercantile Exchange Nepal Limited, Alliance Tower, 4th Floor, Charkhal, Dillibazaar, Kathmandu, Nepal
Phone: +977-1-4011542/43/44, Fax: +977-1-4011545/6 | e-mail: editor@mexnepal.com
MARKET PERSPECTIVE Volume: 6 • Issue: 1 • Year: 2014 A.D
regions is the contemporary example. Even after
the switching of crops, has it been sufficiently
conventional farming able to feed the smallholder farmers’ families is
yet to find an answer. Similarly, the consequences
practices and lack of of untimely and severe hailstones, pre and post-
seasonal frost and dews have damaged variety
extension services. of crops in many part of the country. The higher
surface temperatures have led to the emergence
Moreover, the impacts of new weeds and pests which has posted new
challenges to the entire farming system by
of climate change also increasing farm expenses. The challenges do not
end here. The low productivity further adds debt
impose heavy challenges burden of already suffering farmers and forces
them to take informal credits from local landlords.
to the traditional
Climate change is not just a distant threat; its
subsistence farming, impact is already being felt both in the economy
as well as environment. The adverse impacts
making it highly of climate change are taking a toll in country’s
subsistence farming based economy. These
vulnerable. impacts have to be addressed in order to secure the
livelihoods of majority of population and combat
Any impact on food insecurity in the country. For this purpose, the
attention has to be drawn towards climate smart
agriculture has direct agriculture. It is high time we adhere climate
resilient agriculture practices. For this, there is a
implications on the sheer need for endorsing agro-extension programs,
diversifying crops varieties, intensifying crop
livelihood and the developments, and promoting the cultivation of
highly adaptive crop types. Beside this,trainings
economy of an agrarian on better farming practices to improve farmer’s
technical efficiency is equally important. In nut
country like ours. shell, all these measures are to be implemented
as a part of adaptation strategy for enhancing
Alteration in temperature productivity and farm profits and to combat
vulnerability of small scale farmers.
and precipitation as a
Upasna Acharya
result of global warming
Masters in International
has direct impacts on crop Co-operation & Development,
Mid-Western University.
yield and food security. upasna.acharya77@gmail.com
Small farmers are the
ones who are highly
vulnerable to changing
climate variability. The
limited land ownership
and constrained adaptive
capacity of the small
holder farmers exposes them to bear the adverse The higher class people mainly Brahmin/Chhetri
with maximum land- holdings (zamindaars/
impacts of climate change. In addition to this, landlords) are dominant factor devolving the
welfare of deprived small farmers.
lack of awareness, lack of prior knowledge and
When it comes to climate change related issues,
inefficient skills to develop contingent adaptation the high dependence of small farmers on monsoon
have increased their vulnerability torainfall
plans further intensifies their susceptibility. variation. At many places, the erratic rainfall has
resulted into decline in crop production. There
The impacts of climate change on the small are also evidences of shifting agricultural pattern
in the country, due to water scarcity. The shifting
holder farmers are localized and differ as per the from paddy to sugarcane cultivation in the tarai
region. The farmers in the tarai region are at greater
risks of floods and droughts whereas the farmers in
hill and mountain are more vulnerable to risks of
landslides. Besides the physical factor, the social
factor also contributes to farmer’s vulnerability.
weather conditions in many parts of the world. on various harvests and the earth varies; it may pass Cocoa, mainly produced in West Africa,
through unnoticeably like the one that happened in followed by Ivory Coast and Ghana, rallied 8
Forecasters seem to be a bit conservative 2010, but it can be intense and felt worldwide as percent from the start of the year 2014, which is the
well. highest increase since September 2011. Meanwhile,
while coming to their prediction about El Niño, palm oil which is mainly grown in Malaysia and
After the U.S. forecaster’s prediction, that there Indonesia, gained more than 9 percent in 2014.
mainly because forecasting a big El Niño event is a chance for El Niño to develop this summer,
consecutively came Japan’s weather forecast of Commodities such as rubber, wheat, cotton
would cause a spike in food prices. But researchers such an event. The last El Niño happened in 1997- and sugar are also at risk, as both West Africa and
98, caused agricultural damage worth billions of Southeast Asia face the hazard of drought caused
consider it may be better to have this price response dollars in U.S. alone. Everyone from farmers to by El Niño, as do India and Australia. Similarly,
commodities analysts is watching on as it could temperature rise in the Pacific Ocean would also
at an earlier stage where farmers can still adapt, cause large harm to products. affect the fishing in Peru, the world’s biggest
fishmeal exporter. Demand from aquaculture and
Shortage of rainfall caused by El Niño in livestock industries have already dragged fishmeal
prices to its historical heights.
Nevertheless, El Niño events do not have to be Southeast Asia and Australia will slash production
of agricultural commodities in countries such as US officials said about the categorization of
a disaster always. They can be turned into benefits if Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand. El Niño, namely, weak to moderate, moderate to
strong. Episodes during the past, most recently
people are prepared for it. For instance, impacts like Poorer countries will be most affected from any in 2009-10 did not see many increases in global
damage to crops and rise in food prices, although temperatures. However there were very strong
shifting fish stocks and handling changes in rainfall, some commodities have already got the effect events too, like the one in 1997-98, which made
priced anticipating the possible weather impact. The a record warm in that year. US climate prediction
except people are informed about the bigger event prospects of potential El Niño have provided some center predicts the probability of such an event
weather risk support to cocoa and palm oil. likely in 2015. El Niño in 2015 could influence the
which is going prices to attain staggering heights but an investor
should wait for the unfolding of the events in order
to take place. to reap the benefits.
According Till then, Adios!
to reports from Syed Ahamed Aseel Ali Shihab
Masters in Business Administration
Australia’s International Islamic University
Malaysia.
Bureau of
Page 04
Meteorology,
the tropical
pacific
subsurface had
been warmed
extensively
over the past
few weeks,
which means
temperatures are likely to rise in coming months. A
recent rush of westerly winds over the far western
pacific was also seen to be the strongest since 2009.
According to Australia’s national research agency, a
ball of warm water is seen crossing the ocean 150
meters below the surface.
During May 2014, the US National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration said the odds of an El
Niño would exceed 50 percent this year. Its impact