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Mercantile Exchange Blog
 
Nov 24 2011
Thanksgiving Day: A Day for Retrospection

Thanksgiving Day is always celebrated in the western world to be grateful for the wonderful things of life. But with the stock markets in the Europe and the US falling to their 7-week low and plenty of uncertainty surrounding the global economy, investors may be grappling to find some cheer this Thanksgiving. But if we have to find some light in an otherwise worried environment, here is a list of five things we could be grateful for.

  1. No Currency Crisis: Even as Europe suffers from a fiscal and banking sector crisis, the euro has shown surprising resilience and withstood the fall towards another currency crisis. Analysts have pointed out that the euro has been one of the least volatile major currencies of 2011. But they have also warned that if the crisis attacks the core i.e. Germany and France, the foreign investors will withdraw their holdings of European investments which could affect the euro downwards.
  2. Forced Reforms: Rising government bond yields have been a driver behind the global stock selloff. But on the contrary, bond market policy makers have forced reforms that politicians have failed to make for decades.
  3. Lower Inflation: Taking cue from the global stock markets, commodities have also not been spared in the flight from risk, and the lower prices are helping to ease the inflation rates. Renowned investor Jim Rogers had predicted a 1970s style stagflation for the US economy, attributed to the massive amount of money printed by the Fed. Thankfully, that hasn’t taken place, yet!
  4. China has Aces: Investors were worried after Chinese PMI data reported a slowdown in its manufacturing sector. Due to this, China’s central bank will be prompted to eventually ease monetary policy by cutting bank reserve requirement ratios. But China has all the ammunition needed to fire its economic environment to soar further. Some economists believe the policymakers could announce a mixture of measures including boosting domestic consumption, easing monetary policy and unleashing fiscal stimulus.
  5. Treasury’s as safe haven: Treasuries have always been depicted as an alternative to the risky investments due to their risk-free characteristics. The latest stock market selloff has once again led to a rally in government bonds, with yields on the 10-year now at 1.88%.  Investors can always divert their investments towards the bond market in times of large sell-off in the equities market.
Posted by Mex R&D at 24/11/2011 1:42:48 PM
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