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Feb 13 2012
Trading Outlook: 13th-17th February 2012

After an extended weekend of travelling and a richly-deserved rest on Sunday, yours truly is back amongst the mix of writing the blog. When an investor gears up for the week, he/she is always on the lookout for the upcoming fundamental news. Investors always wait for path-breaking or pattern changing updates for confirmation of a trading signal. In preparation for the new trading week, the following is a list of the Top 10 economic events around the world that could move the markets.

  1. JPY-Japan GDP-Monday- After registering its third negative growth in Q1 & Q2, the Japanese economy returned to positive territory by 1.6% in Q3 of 2011, but is forecasted to lose momentum once again, contracting by 0.3% in Q4 of 2011.
  2. JPY-BOJ Interest Rate Announcement- Monday- The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its record low benchmark rate in the target band between 0% and 0.10%. There is a strong potential for the BOJ to consider additional measures to stimulate the economy and to weaken its currency.
  3. GBP-UK CPI-Tuesday-Inflationary pressures in the UK are forecast to continue their decline with the inflation gauge dropping to 3.6% in January from 4.2% in the previous month.
  4. EUR-Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiments Index-Tuesday-The trend in the improvement of ZEW index is forecast to continue with the index registering a smaller decline of -21.1 in January from -32.5 in December.
  5. USD-US Retail Sales-Tuesday- Consumer spending in the US is forecast to improve from the weaker-than-expected 0.1% reading in December with a 0.8% increase in January.
  6. GBP-UK Jobless Claims and Unemployment Rate-Wednesday- Claims for unemployment benefits in the UK are forecast to increase by up to 3,300 from 1,200 in the previous month, while the rate remains unchanged at 8.4%
  7. EUR-Eurozone GDP-Wednesday- The GDP could prove Mario Draghi’s concerns  were justified with the economy forecast to contract by 0.4% in Q4 after an lackluster growth of 0.1% in Q3. A disappointing report would raise the odds of more rate cuts by the ECB which could weigh down on the Euro.
  8. GBP-Bank of England Inflation Report-Wednesday- The bank is expected to maintain its outlook for lower inflation while policy makers keep their cautious stance on the UK economy. The inflation report coupled with the CPI and jobs data, could become significant risk events for the GBP.
  9. USD US FOMC Meeting Minutes-Wednesday- Following the surprisingly dovish FOMC monetary policy announcement, the minutes should confirm the market’s expectations that the Fed is standing ready to deploy QE3 at the first signs of economic and labor market weakness.
  10. USD-US Housing Starts-Thursday-The US housing starts are forecast to improve from December’s decline with an increase to 680K in January, while building permits also inches higher to 680K from 670K in the previous month.

However, the euro will capture the spotlight in the week ahead which will shed light on Eurozone economic growth in the final quarter of 2011. The Greek drama continues with an impending parliamentary vote on new austerity measures and bailout funding approval desperately needed at the Euro-group meeting of finance ministers scheduled for February 15th.

 
Posted by Mex R&D at 13/2/2012 12:31:52 PM
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