What could be the weight of an accurate forecast for an investor prior to any investment decisions? Are the grounds and gravities explored and scrutinized by the forecasters’ reliable and prudent? These could be some of the striking fundamentals for any rational investors, in the first hand, precursor to any investments.

Now, let’s examine on how the forecasters’, so called market analysts’, come up with the market forecasts and predictions. In essence, ignoring the depth and quality of any prophecies, all the market assumptions are purely based on the market-signaling-effects. As the signaling effect reflects all the market fundamentals and technicalities, the core theme and vigor of every forecast greatly relies on the accuracy and transparency of all the signaling variables, be it associated with demand-supply conditions, market sentiments, price volatilities or any other clans of market signal.    

For an ordinary investor, the general investment decisions have always been extremely challenging. At such instances, the question arises whether to rely on the market experts’ forecasts or not? History exhibits that in many cases, as the forecasts delivered by the market experts’ are purely based on the rigorous assessments of the past-present-future market fundamentals and technicalities, the portfolio of investors’ generally appreciates on following the available forecasts of the forecasters’. But the scenario may not always be the same.

Let’s scrutinize one recent flaw of forecasters’ concerning the market fundamentals. Few months back, when the market fundamentals for gold, the safe haven, was extremely bullish amidst the unprecedented Quantitative Easing-3 (QE-3) being exercised by the Federal Reserve (Fed), the central bank of the US, supported by other market pessimism and then sought inflationary economic instance, the precious metal had been given extreme emphasis. The price of gold was then forecasted to cross $2,000 mark by many world class experts, both by relevant corporations and individuals forecasters’. Despite the forecast purely based on the market signals, on the contrary, the prices of gold sharply plunged below $1,400 in the ensuing months thereafter. Thus, for any market participants, more essentially for investors, it is always beneficial to take calculative investment decision in line with the market forecasts given by the market experts and self-judgment or scrutiny of the market fundamentals.