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May 18 2012
Runaway Train: Europe heading for a steep curve

‘Runaway train never coming back….” This evergreen song by Collective Soul in the early 1990’s depicted the trials and tribulations of normal lives headed for the ultimate disaster and no scope for return towards normalcy. In today’s modern era, the song can be compared to the disaster that has been developing for long-the chaos of the European story. With each passing day, the European runaway train is slowly but surely headed towards the ultimate collision.

Europe and Greece are locked in a battle of mutually assured financial destruction. If Europe caves and gives in to Greek demands, however, a new set of challenges to the austerity agenda will arise. How long would it be before the people of Spain or Italy or Portugal or Ireland realize that they too have much more leverage than they ever imagined. Can the Troika cave to Greece while remaining credible with other troubled economies? I doubt it - which I think increases the risk that the core of Europe will believe it necessary to create a moral hazard example out of Greece.

Of course, this worked so well with Lehman Brothers. We will just forget about that little detail for the moment!

The recent issues in Greece have taken the media and the world by storm. Any issues coming out of this tiny nation is having a major influence in the world affairs. Trying to see the light amongst the dark clouds is the only way forward for now. It is certainly the worst of times at the moment. Yet, with equal measures we wait for the good of times.

 
Posted by Mex R&D at 18/5/2012 2:00:25 PM
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