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Dollar, that was
previously choppy with uncertain price movements, has firmly moved on an
uptrend. This was due to the optimism cast by the positive US jobless data and
Bernanke’s comments that indicated at a possible tapering of the monetary
stimulus by the end of this year.
Tracking this week’s
movement, on Wednesday, the Dollar index had slipped by 0.1% to trade at
$82.639. Previously on Tuesday, the Dollar index had declined by 0.2 % to
82.846. This saw the Euro slow down its decline on Wednesday, as it dipped only
by 0.15to $1.3140, against the greenback. Meanwhile, against the Yen the Dollar
advanced slightly by 0.3% to trade at 99.35 yen due to inherent weakening of
the Japanese currency.
But, on Thursday, the
Dollar index surged against the major six currencies to hit a new peak of 83.09.
This was against a previous session low of 82.75. This caused the Euro to drop
slightly as it traded at $ 1.3077. Against the Yen, the Dollar rose to a weekly
high of 100.35 Yen and the Pound drew back against the Dollar as it declined to
trade around $1.5190 from its previous high of $1.5240.
The Greenback seems to
have been buoyed by the positive tone set by the US jobless claims Data. The US
jobless data that was released on Thursday showed that the number of people
filing for unemployment had reduced to 334,000, against an expected level of
358,000. This clearly signaled an improvement in the US labor market and a
positive sign for recovery in the US economy.
Moreover, Bernanke, who
testified in the Congress, revealed that the Fed plans to start the tapering
its Bond-purchase policy by this year end, though he was very vague about the
exact timetable for the pullback. Bernanke had stated that the tapering will
depend on the outcomes of future US economic data, like the improvement in the
labor market and the inflation reaching the Fed’s target of 2%. Consequently,
the positive US jobless claims data stoked hopes of an early QE tapering by the
Fed.
This uptrend in Dollar
had put some downward pressure on Bullion. On Wednesday, in anticipation of
Bernanke’s testimony the Spot Gold dropped by 1.2% to $1,276.66 an ounce, from
its previous session high of $1,300.16. Later, on Thursday, the US Gold Futures
climbed up by $6.70 to $1284.20 an ounce, while, the Spot Gold pared back its
losses as it advanced by 0.8% to $1,285.
On the other hand, on
Thursday, the Crude oil driven by the drop in jobless claims rose to a 16-month
high as the crude prices for August delivery reached a peak of $106.55 a
barrel. Furthermore, the EIA and US crude oil inventory data revealed a drop in
the stockpiles by 6.90 million barrels, extending the decline for the third
straight week. This caused the WTI August delivery to soar to $106.27 a barrel.
Thus, the greenback’s
rise was mainly supported by the positive jobless claim data with Bernanke’s
comment striking a neutral tone with a possibility of scale back in the
asset-purchase program by the year end.
However, Bernanke also
stated that the unemployment is still above 7% and the inflation has not
reached the Fed’s target of 2% casting doubts on an early tapering of QE
policy. So, the further rally in Dollar will mainly depend on more positive US
economic data in the coming days.
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