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Jul 19 2013
Greenback Rally Underpinned by Positive USA Jobless Data!

Dollar, that was previously choppy with uncertain price movements, has firmly moved on an uptrend. This was due to the optimism cast by the positive US jobless data and Bernanke’s comments that indicated at a possible tapering of the monetary stimulus by the end of this year.

Tracking this week’s movement, on Wednesday, the Dollar index had slipped by 0.1% to trade at $82.639. Previously on Tuesday, the Dollar index had declined by 0.2 % to 82.846. This saw the Euro slow down its decline on Wednesday, as it dipped only by 0.15to $1.3140, against the greenback. Meanwhile, against the Yen the Dollar advanced slightly by 0.3% to trade at 99.35 yen due to inherent weakening of the Japanese currency.

But, on Thursday, the Dollar index surged against the major six currencies to hit a new peak of 83.09. This was against a previous session low of 82.75. This caused the Euro to drop slightly as it traded at $ 1.3077. Against the Yen, the Dollar rose to a weekly high of 100.35 Yen and the Pound drew back against the Dollar as it declined to trade around $1.5190 from its previous high of $1.5240.

The Greenback seems to have been buoyed by the positive tone set by the US jobless claims Data. The US jobless data that was released on Thursday showed that the number of people filing for unemployment had reduced to 334,000, against an expected level of 358,000. This clearly signaled an improvement in the US labor market and a positive sign for recovery in the US economy.

Moreover, Bernanke, who testified in the Congress, revealed that the Fed plans to start the tapering its Bond-purchase policy by this year end, though he was very vague about the exact timetable for the pullback. Bernanke had stated that the tapering will depend on the outcomes of future US economic data, like the improvement in the labor market and the inflation reaching the Fed’s target of 2%. Consequently, the positive US jobless claims data stoked hopes of an early QE tapering by the Fed.

This uptrend in Dollar had put some downward pressure on Bullion. On Wednesday, in anticipation of Bernanke’s testimony the Spot Gold dropped by 1.2% to $1,276.66 an ounce, from its previous session high of $1,300.16. Later, on Thursday, the US Gold Futures climbed up by $6.70 to $1284.20 an ounce, while, the Spot Gold pared back its losses as it advanced by 0.8% to $1,285.

On the other hand, on Thursday, the Crude oil driven by the drop in jobless claims rose to a 16-month high as the crude prices for August delivery reached a peak of $106.55 a barrel. Furthermore, the EIA and US crude oil inventory data revealed a drop in the stockpiles by 6.90 million barrels, extending the decline for the third straight week. This caused the WTI August delivery to soar to $106.27 a barrel.

Thus, the greenback’s rise was mainly supported by the positive jobless claim data with Bernanke’s comment striking a neutral tone with a possibility of scale back in the asset-purchase program by the year end.

However, Bernanke also stated that the unemployment is still above 7% and the inflation has not reached the Fed’s target of 2% casting doubts on an early tapering of QE policy. So, the further rally in Dollar will mainly depend on more positive US economic data in the coming days.

 

 
Posted by Mex R&D at 19/7/2013 2:26:01 PM
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