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Mercantile Exchange Blog |
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Oct 7 2013 |
| Gold: Does it support Economic Conditions in the Long Run? |
Taking into account the central focal point of the world, the US, the last week data showed mixed results of its economic conditions. After the closure of the government on the stalemate under the budget, added about 80,000 federal workers unemployed thus leading to the increase in the jobless claims rising by 1000 to 308000. The temporary layoff of the federal workers won’t be shown in the unemployment data and will be registered in the separate category thus not influencing the jobless claims. Similarly, the Chicago PMI climbed from 53.0 as of August to 55.7 in September whereas the PMI advanced by a slight 0.5% to 56.2% from Augusts’ reading of 55.7%. The average of the data of PMI till the date shows an analogous annualized growth of GDP by 3.3%. The latest increase in the manufacturing indicators is consistent with self-effacing economic growth. In addition, the Non-manufacturing ISM showed a 4.2% down than Augusts’ data of 58.6% to 54.4% showing a slower pace of growth in the non-manufacturing sector. Also, the private sector employment was increased to 166,000 jobs in September from Augusts’ 159,000.
The budget impasse which led to the government shutdown in the starting of the current fiscal year has added further ignorance in negotiations. The Democrats and Republicans are up on to their respective quotes. It has also affected on the consensus of raising the debt limit. If the US does not raise the debt limit the consequence is the US’s default on paying bills which is a historic event thus leading to spill over its effect to the world economy. The partial government shutdown had entered the shutdown seventh day without any negotiations.
The gold regarded as a store of value gained with the government shutdown and debt impasse. The immediate delivery for bullion and gold for December delivery added to 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. The silver too advanced by 0.3% on immediate delivery consequently showing support for gold prices amid the US economic turmoil. With the starting of the festive seasons and the strong cultural bias towards gold as a storehouse of wealth and as an instrument of portfolio for the promising middle classes in Asian region, the bullion for gold demand has enlarged in this region. In contrary, the demand for investment in the Western region has plunged. As the Central Banks have gleamed in gold stocks, the Fed alone owns 18% of all the gold ever mined and has added 535 tons in 2012; now adding as much as 350 tons this year.
Thus, though the gold may show the ups and down trend in the commodity market, its lust has not been faded out. Still, from the central bank to investor to emerging middle classes shows the gold as a store of value, store of wealth and a hedging tool against inflation.
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| Posted by at 12:21:51 PM |
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