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Mar 2 2012
Fed's Dilemma: Driving Growth or Stimulus

Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve Chairman’s remarks to Congress this week satisfied neither those who believe the economy can withstand the pressures nor those who want the institute to continue playing a role in the markets. A day after Bernanke’s speech caused havoc in the stocks and commodities areas posting losses, stocks gained enough on Thursday to make the Bernanke appearance an even draw.

Bernanke had delivered remarks to the Senate and indicated that the recent turn in data including manufacturing, housing and employment, gave him added confidence that the recovery, although uneven, was a bit better than he had anticipated. The market had interpreted then, that the Chairman would be no more advocating the monetary easing plans that had repeatedly enhanced the prices of risky asset. The speech had interrupted a sharp 2012 rally in stocks, while also triggering an abrupt selling pressure on gold and other commodities. More broadly, the moves provided further evidence that the financial markets are still highly sensitive to the Fed’s maneuvering.

Historically, the second day of the Fed chairman’s address is usually less market-moving than the first, and the major averages quietly moved towards positive territory. Bernanke delivered a stern warning regarding fiscal policy, but otherwise avoided much talk about future easing intentions.

The other side of the argument, of course, is that the Fed is moving away from its historic market intervention, would be a sign of confidence. Since the financial crisis took the world by storm, the Fed has staged two QE interventions as well as a third program called Operation Twist. Analysts believe the Fed needs to start worrying more about the inflation its policies could cause. Rising bond yields later in the year actually could force the central bank to increase rates rather than go to even more accommodative policy.

Ben Bernanke in his latest statement has confirmed that the economy is truly on the way towards recovery grounds. But the words do come with a warning-let the long run decide the truthfulness of the statement. However, the Fed needs to re-engineer its policies and look towards sustaining the recovery phase rather than still worrying about the recession.

Have a great weekend everyone!

 
Posted by Mex R&D at 2/3/2012 12:52:40 PM
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