The Federal Reserve minutes which were released on Thursday showed that the corresponding officials were actively debating whether to begin mitigating the $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program after midyear. “All but a few” Fed officials agreed the central bank would likely want to keep the program flowing “at least through midyear”.
While some analysts hinted the Fed could start reducing the program around the mid year, others saw the Fed continuing through September, while others wanted the program to keep running at its current pace into 2014 as well. Some also held out the possibility of increasing the program if the economic outlook deteriorates. Currently, Fed officials agreed, “additional purchases would be necessary to achieve a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market.”
In the central-banking circles, the Fed’s decision about this program is amongst the most closely watched globally. Stock markets enhanced at the mere mention of it last year, before it was even launched, and they kept rising after the Fed started adding to its portfolio of mortgage and Treasury bonds. Interest rates have fallen thereafter, helping to stimulate the bleeding housing market into recovery and also boost the car sales.
Closing the program would certainly be deemed as a big event. The Fed is considering its desire to drive a faster-growing recovery and more hiring against the risks that it could overdo it and create a new financial bubble or inflation. Co-incidentally, the Fed’s debate about pulling back prevails as other central banks around the world are doing the same. Most notably, the Bank of Japan this month launched a large new bond-buying program and in the process plans to double the amount of money it is pumping into the Japanese financial system.
The Fed is closely monitoring on how the economy performs. Since the March meeting, economic data have been soft. The Labor Department reported Friday that payroll employment expanded by just 88,000 jobs in March, stated as the worst performance since June.
While the Fed has been saying it will keep the programs going until it sees "substantial" improvement in labor markets, the minutes pointed only to "some improvement." The Fed is certainly on the constant watch for finding clues on the status of the economy and will decide accordingly on the much sought-after decision on a global scale. The Fed is certainly in a dilemma on the decision. What’s your call?? |