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Apr 17 2012
Economic Recovery & Medical Therapy: Sides of the same coin

Yesterday, the talk of the town sparked a unified fear amongst the denizens of the city-a ghost! There are numerous interpretations of the story of a ghost in New Road. Rumor has it that the incident, whatever you may believe, had incited crowds aplenty with people flocking the streets to try to derive the crux of the matter. Well, one may never know the truth until and unless the concerned people are taken in for interrogation. The truth is certainly out there. Until then, it’s just uncertainty that is doing the rounds.

Keeping the paranormal activities of the mind away for the moment, as a financial blogger, I normally have two objectives in mind while writing. The first is furnishing the relevant information investors need to know. The second is a bit more abstract. With the second aspect in mind, I recently tried to think of the best analogy for the slow economic recovery some claim we are in.

At first, this seems to be a simple conclusion. But upon closer examinations, it’s more shaded. The word, “recovery” immediately conjures a few scenarios. One is, being sick and slowly recovering from the cold: each day one feels a little better. Each day sees slow but sure progress at recovery. However, none of these analogies fit the economy-or all medical recoveries. However, a crucial element is missing: uncertainty.

Fast forward to the real financial scenarios and this is where the market is at the moment. The global economy was pulled out alive from the 2008 wreck, and by 2009-10 the bleeding had mostly stopped. Gradually things have been getting better, but nonetheless we’re still at risk of another major accident. The market should have been on cruise control-only coming into the clinic for an occasional check up-but instead the global economy is still on life support. The extent of the damage is still unknown.

To make matters worse, the economy has been injected with so much medicine i.e. stimulus, that it’s impossible to truly evaluate the conditions. Once, after injuring my knee during football, the doctor had prescribed some painkillers for immediate relief. After taking them, I felt great and started played football as usual. Only the next morning after the medication wore off did I realize the additional damage done. Similarly, with trillions pumped into the system, the global economy is numb. The global economy is prematurely dancing on a broken leg, and when the medication wears off, we might find ourselves in worse shape. The air of uncertainties is upon us and we hope things turn out for the better in the days to come.

 
Posted by Mex R&D at 17/4/2012 11:28:03 AM
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