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Jan 20 2012
Easing on the Cards: Growth Unsustainable

A growing consensus of economists who have proclaimed the current growth as unsustainable, are looking forward to the announcement in which the Federal Reserve could likely step in with a $1 trillion worth of easing in the ensuing days. With the Fed's Open Market Committee set to meet next week, expectations are rising that the languishing housing market will urge the central bank to buy mortgage-backed securities. The major goal of this measure will be to drive interest rates even further down from current record-low levels, and to spur confidence that more monetary tools remain to stimulate the economy.

A few months ago, market observers had speculated that another round of QE was on the cards. But this perception was discarded since it would be politically infeasible given the hope of a better growth in 2012. But with the housing sector stuck in a rut and an European recession very much in the horizon, economists believe QE3 is all but certain. The $1 trillion valuation of the QE is significant since it will send the Fed's balance sheet to about $3.9 trillion and is likely to ignite a war with Congress over the threat of inflation. But the recent easing of inflation pressures, combined with dithering of the Congress, sets up a delicate stage for the Fed to take this risk.

Economists' reasoning of the current economic scenario paints a different picture from what is provided in front of us. Economists opine that the current improving data masks unsustainable fundamentals-an unusual drop in the savings rate, a jump in the auto purchases due mainly to sustained recovery from Japan's natural disaster last year and a surge in inventories.

We all witnessed the dramatic rise of gold, as Bernanke spoke of QE2 last time around. The age-old cliche-Expect the unexpected, is all I can say at the moment.

Have a great weekend everyone!

 

 

 
Posted by Mex R&D at 20/1/2012 12:00:23 PM
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