Dear readers, as you read this, lawyers in Europe are busily drafting a fiscal “compact” designed to restore discipline in the debt-ridden euro zone’s economies. While others celebrate the festive season, one of the EU’s 27 members is to start churning out the treaty’s details. Meanwhile, the British government, having fallen out with all its other partners, has promised that it will remain a central part of the union and that London will remain the Europe’s financial capital. All is well then or are we missing the real scenario behind those blurred pictures?
Once again, due to the fragmented opinion of the respective leaders, the Europe’s leaders have failed to solve the impending crisis. The new treaty could easily be killed by the markets or by its rejection in one or more euro-zone country. The EU has suffered plenty of disappointing summits without facing the real scenario-a good many of them in the past year. But unlike the marathon dispute over a new constitution, the euro is in a race against time because markets are driving nations to insolvency. As investors continue to lose faith, the task of saving the single currency grows harder. Sooner of latter, the euro will be played beyond a zone of no return.
Investors are of the opinion that instead of closing all the doors, the EU leaders should work towards mending the fence. If the euro does collapse, or the treaty is reborn, Mr. Cameron, the British Premier, may yet claim that he was right all along. It would certainly make his veto seem less momentous. However, other European countries will not soon forget Britain’s attempt to hold the summit to ransom at a vital moment-and to protect the financial services, which many of them blame for the crisis. At the worst, it might be the beginning of the process by which Britain fall out of the EU. Yet it does not have to be-so long as Mr. Cameron is prepared to mend fences and align his tactics with a strategy to be part of Europe.
Ultimately, the Euro zone faces a drastic choice. Its members could strike a grand bargain that deploys the ECB’s balance-sheet and some form of Eurobond in exchange for fiscal integration. The question is not whether they can save the currency but whether enough of them are prepared to pay the inevitable price. The game is truly on and we will be watching with hawk-eyes for any developments.
Have a great weekend everyone! |