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Sep 17 2012
ECB's influence on Global Economy: A Scrutiny!

After the statement given by Mario Draghi that he would do “Whatever it takes” to save the 17 nation euro, the currency has appreciated since July versus each of its major counterparts. Concerning debt issues in Spain and Italy, Draghi has shown willingness to aid the debt ridden countries; buy debt of the members. Amidst these news and statements, the euro has appreciated 3.7 percent over the past month against the yen, pound, Australian dollar and other developed market currencies.

The entire world financial market has been witnessing the willingness of European leaders to support the currency union and is expecting that there is much more to come from their end. Considering the positive outlook of the union, BNP Paribas has forecasted the highest year end value of euro, calling for the currency to strengthen to $1.35. It is also observed that the rising confidence in the European market has been aiding entire global market as well. The MSCI All country-world Index has enhanced by 17 percent since June. Similarly, Standard and Poor’s GSCI Index of commodities has gone up by 25 percent from the support point on June 21, 2012.

Germany’s top constitutional court on September 12 has shown the ‘Green Signal’ to 500 billion euro, euro area rescue fund. This action is believed to have supported the bond buying programs and interest rates in countries like Spain and Italy. ECB amidst bail-out package may buy back bonds with maturities as long as three years. ECB is expected to buy back debt of crisis-ridden countries from secondary markets.

In line with the intended QE3 package of Fed, buying $40 billion worth of mortgage bonds a month to inject money in the economy until the situation improves; the 17 nation currency has appreciated against the green back. Concerning the U.S. easing plans, Morgan Stanley expects the euro to rise to $1.34 by December rather than decline to $1.19. For the market solely considering on the power of Fed, the time has come to realize the ‘Mighty’ power of ECB as well.  

 
Posted by Mex R&D at 17/9/2012 12:45:05 PM
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