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Oct 17 2013
China to announce strong GDP numbers!

While China's economy is expected to have grown at its fastest pace this year during the July-September period, economists say this does not mark the start of a reacceleration in world's second largest economy. Third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data, due out on October 18, is forecast to show the economy expanded 7.8 percent on year, according to a Reuters poll, up from 7.5 percent in the second quarter. A government-stimulus-fueled pick-up in infrastructure investment and a recovery in exports are the key drivers behind the growth resurgence. However, with the impact of the stimulus beginning to fade and external demand lackluster, the mainland economy may struggle to maintain its momentum, say China watchers.

Recent economic indicators for September including exports, which unexpectedly contracted 0.3 percent on-year, and electricity consumption growth, which slowed to 10.4 percent on-year from 13.7 percent in August, indicate that momentum may have already started to lose steam, say economists.

Industrial production, fixed-asset investment and retail sales data, also set to be published on Friday, will provide further insight on the state of the economy. Factory output growth is expected to have moderated to 10.1 percent on-year, while fixed-asset investment is forecast to have grown 20.3 percent in the first nine months of 2013 from a year earlier, unchanged from gains in the first eight months.

According to a private sector survey by U.S. based-China Beige Book International, conventional wisdom that the third quarter saw renewed, strong economic expansion is "seriously flawed." The quarterly private sector survey, which is based on interviews with over 2,000 respondents, made up of business executives across sectors and regions in the mainland found, "weakening gains in profits, revenues, wages, employment, and prices, all showing slipping growth on-quarter...certainly not the powerful expansion suggested by the consensus narrative."

The report noted that manufacturing sector in fact saw a slowdown, contrary to the positive Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) readings in the recent months. The official Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51.1 last month from August's 51.0. The key 50 mark separates growth from contraction.

 

 
Posted by Mex R&D at 17/10/2013 10:38:48 AM
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