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Jan 18 2013
Are Numbers Interpreting Global Economy?

The year 2012 remained quite gloomy for the entire seven billion plus world population in terms of economic growth and prosperity. With world leaders like U.S., Eurozone and China, not acquiring ‘expected-status’ for the year, amidst spiking issues like unemployment, inflation and debt regimes, prospect for year 2013 is seen not encouraging at this junction of highway.

Concerning ongoing austerity measures, high unemployment rate and lower business confidence combined with weak market sentiments in core global economies like U.S. and Eurozone, the World Bank (WB) has lowered its forecast for the year 2013. Market analysts and related institutions are coming up with new lowered growth forecast for the ongoing year in line with lower than expected manufacturing and trade indicators coming from two different sides of the Atlantic. Despite, the world economy for 2013 was initially expected to grow by 3 percent, the new growth forecast based on current and prospect scenario has come out to be 2.4 percent, lowered by 60 basis points.

Similarly, amidst reduced global growth, market analysts and economists from around the world have reduced their growth forecast for the ‘land of the rising sun,’ i.e., Japan, U.S and more vigilant economy, Eurozone. It is believed that second year of contraction in Eurozone will be having its tremendous impact on global economy and could act as a reverse-catalyst in global economic atmosphere, measured by global Purchasing Managers’ Index or any other world index. Having inter-twined relationship with economic supreme nations (China, Eurozone, U.S.), emerging economies like India, Brazil, Mexico and other East-Asian economies are fearing their economies to be affected amid contraction in the economic environment of world economic hubs. However, developing economies from around the globe are expected to expand at the rate of above 5.5 percent in the year 2013.

Despite, the World Bank, in its report has already warned on fragility and vulnerability of global economy in the remaining months of the year, on the other hand, the report has also emphasized that the magnitude of economic downside plunge to be at decreasing rate compared to recent precursor years. If we turn back and scrutinize the past year-2012, European measures, reforms and policies to cushion the financial/debt crisis in the single economic bloc, seems have not been able to provide economic surge or even only correction to then ongoing recession. At the time when financial and political agendas have not been facilitating economic improvements in the single currency bloc, issues related to spending cuts and tax hikes in U.S., diplomatic tensions between Japan and China affecting trade environment, and ‘not so good’ manufacturing and industrial indicators coming from U.S and China is feared to pour its bitter taste to cloud the little expected optimistic hopes in ongoing year.

 
Posted by Mex R&D at 18/1/2013 10:56:08 AM
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